📄 Abstract
This study investigates the trajectory and structure of India?s agricultural trade with SAARC nations, with an emphasis on the implications of the South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA) agreement. Employing analytical tools such as the Cuddy-Della Valle instability index, Balassa?s Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA), and Markov chain analysis, the research evaluates data from both pre-SAFTA (1991?2006) and post-SAFTA (2006?2021) periods. The study shows that despite India's economic and agricultural dominance in the region?accounting for over 70% of SAARC?s agricultural exports?the overall intra-regional trade remains critically low at approximately 5%, highlighting SAFTA?s limited impact. The RCA analysis further reveals that India possesses a strong comparative advantage in key commodities such as coffee, tea, spices, cereals, and cotton across several SAARC partners, particularly with Nepal and Bangladesh. However, this advantage has not consistently translated into trade gains due to trade volatility, weak retention of export markets, and geopolitical frictions. In several instances, India?s comparative advantage weakened post-SAFTA, suggesting a misalignment between trade potential and policy outcomes. The study concludes that while India is well-positioned to lead agro-trade integration in South Asia, realization of comparative advantage requires political stability, resolution of bilateral and multi-lateral tensions, besides stronger institutional frameworks.
🏷️ Keywords
📚 How to Cite:
S. Aiswarya, B. Swaminathan , TO TRADE OR NOT TO TRADE: RETROSPECT AND PROSPECT OF INDIA'S AGRO-TRADE WITH SAARC NATIONS , Volume 12 , Issue 5, may 2025, EPRA International Journal of Economics, Business and Management Studies (EBMS) ,